At the current reference price of $100.12 per barrel, the 3.33 million barrels crude theft would amount to approximately N448bn loss to the country
ABUJA — Nigeria lost 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, valued at N364 billion (or N448 billion at current market prices), with nearly two-thirds of the losses occurring in the final quarter alone, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
At the current reference price of $100.12 per barrel, its value would rise to approximately N448bn.
The losses were detailed in the commission’s 2025 annual report released on Thursday, which painted a sober picture of the country’s oil sector: total revenue collections plummeted by 17.03% despite massive spending on pipeline and asset security.
Fourth-Quarter Theft Spike Drives Losses
Crude oil theft surged dramatically toward the end of the year, recording 2.19 million barrels lost in Q4—representing 65.8% of the entire year’s stolen volume and nearly five times the 440,434 barrels reported in Q3. Earlier quarterly figures stood at 896,471 barrels in Q1 and a negative 200,400 barrels in Q2 due to volume reconciliation adjustments.
The escalation comes despite skyrocketing security outlays. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) spent N8.67 trillion on energy security in 2025, up from N3.1 trillion in 2024.
Industry analysts note that the persistence of large-scale theft alongside rising protection bills raises serious doubts about the efficacy of existing security measures along key crude evacuation routes. Beyond financial losses, NUPRC documented 357 oil spill incidents across the country during the year, citing sabotage as the root cause in 49.5% of cases.
Oil & Gas Revenues Fall Short of Budget Target
Total oil and gas revenues remitted to the federal government dropped from N12.56 trillion in 2024 to N10.42 trillion in 2025—a shortfall of N2.14 trillion. The collection fell significantly short of the commission’s projected annual target of N16.54 trillion, achieving just a 63% performance rate.
The downturn was primarily driven by a 19.03% slide in oil and gas royalties (including NNPC receivables and Project Gazelle), which sank by N2.11 trillion to hit N8.97 trillion. Lease renewal revenues also suffered a steep decline, plunging 96.4% from N230.73 billion to N8.23 billion.
However, select sub-sectors recorded notable revenue gains:
- Gas Flare Penalties: Rose 56.3% to N611.42 billion (up from N391.26 billion).
- Concession Rentals: Increased 61.1% to N38.19 billion.
- Signature Bonuses: Grew 44.2% to N532.94 billion.
- Miscellaneous Revenue: Increased to N46.44 billion from N35.20 billion.
Overall Production and Commission Finances
Despite operational headwinds, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025, maintaining steady quarterly output averaging ~135 million barrels per quarter, alongside 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate.
On its internal operations, NUPRC generated N342.81 billion in operational income—a 21.85% increase over 2024—primarily funded through N335.45 billion in cost-of-collection allowances. The regulator spent N304.53 billion against an approved operating budget of N645.46 billion for the year.
