More than three years into President Bola Tinubu’s economic reform programme, Nigeria’s trade figures are beginning to show one of the clearest signs of change: the country is selling significantly more goods abroad than it is buying.
Nigeria recorded a N12.6 trillion merchandise trade surplus in the second quarter of 2026, more than double the surplus recorded a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figures offer a positive signal for an economy that has undergone major changes since Tinubu took office, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and reforms to the foreign exchange market. Those measures have pushed up costs for businesses and households and triggered a difficult period of adjustment, but they have also changed the economics of imports, exports and foreign exchange.
The latest trade data suggest that some of those changes are beginning to show up in Nigeria’s external trade position.
A trade surplus simply means Nigeria exported more goods than it imported. In Q2 2026, the country’s surplus reached N12.59 trillion, representing a 101.32 percent increase from the N6.26 trillion recorded in the same quarter of 2025.
The improvement was driven by a combination of stronger exports and lower imports compared with a year earlier.
Total merchandise trade stood at N41.44 trillion in the quarter, up 5.61 percent from N39.24 trillion in Q2 2025.
Exports accounted for about 65 percent of that trade, while imports made up the remaining 35 percent.
Nigeria exported goods worth N27.02 trillion between April and June, an 18.77 percent increase from the same period last year.
Exports also rose sharply from the first quarter, increasing 27.64 percent from N21.17 trillion.
Crude oil remained Nigeria’s biggest single export, with shipments valued at N12.91 trillion, accounting for 47.79 percent of total exports.
But there was another notable feature in the figures: non-crude exports were actually larger when taken together.
Non-crude exports stood at N14.10 trillion, representing 52.21 percent of total exports. Within that group, non-oil products contributed N3.72 trillion, or 13.80 percent of total exports.
That could become increasingly important as Nigeria seeks to reduce its long-standing dependence on crude oil for foreign exchange earnings.
On the other side of the trade equation, Nigeria imported goods worth N14.42 trillion in Q2.
That was 12.55 percent lower than the N16.49 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, although it was 5.91 percent higher than the N13.61 trillion recorded in Q1 2026.
The decline in imports compared with a year earlier is significant.
Nigeria’s economic reforms, particularly the changes to the foreign exchange regime and the resulting depreciation of the naira, have made imported goods considerably more expensive. That has forced businesses and consumers to adjust what and how much they buy from abroad.
China remained Nigeria’s dominant source of imports during the quarter.
Nigeria imported goods worth N5.91 trillion from China, representing 41.02 percent of total imports.
The United States followed with N1 trillion, or 6.97 percent, while India accounted for N924.46 billion, representing 6.41 percent.
The Netherlands and Germany followed with imports valued at N409.81 billion and N395.87 billion respectively.
The figures underline how deeply Nigeria remains connected to global supply chains, particularly China.
The N12.6 trillion surplus is undoubtedly a positive development for Nigeria’s external position. It means the country earned more from selling goods abroad than it spent on goods coming into the country.
The bigger test for Tinubu’s reforms will be whether this improvement can be sustained — and whether Nigeria can increasingly export higher-value non-oil products rather than relying overwhelmingly on crude oil.
If stronger exports, domestic production and investment in productive sectors can continue alongside the reforms, the trade surplus could become more than just a headline figure. It could signal a gradual shift in the structure of Nigeria’s economy.
For now, the Q2 figures provide a notable marker in that transition: Nigeria’s external trade position is strengthening, but the harder question is whether the improvement can translate into broader economic gains for businesses and households.
