By Abraham Ogbodo
It is becoming increasingly difficult to pigeon hole President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) in the unfolding political drama. He neither follows the directing of the artistic director nor the script in his laissez-faire approach. He just follows his instincts and motivations but still manages in the end to arrive at destination. He should be the toast of every theatre director for being able to second guess or move ahead of the director to interpret the script in ways never contemplated in the entire acting scheme. This is what happens when a player or an actor is focused more on the result than the process. And I have not known of any manager who places higher premium on efforts than results. Even though there is something called ‘best practices’ in management science, results are still considered more important than methods. Methods are only good when they lead to good results. When methods end only in efforts, management would not be impressed. It listens less to the man that made humongous efforts without results. On the contrary, management would listen more to he or she who returned humongous results without corresponding efforts.
Till date, the best script in a rogue power game is called The Prince. It was written by a Florentine statesman, Niccolo Machiavelli, in 1513. The book presents a simple story that has impacted political thinking across ages and climes. It says power is not morality and virtue is not a guide in the game of power. Neither is vice a guide. Rather, the focus of every player is on taking the power. This calls for a combination of virtue and vice. It is almost like a carrot and stick approach to ensure the sustained reign of the Prince. The combination doesn’t have to be proportionate. If more carrot than stick does the trick, so be it. If otherwise, and the stick rises in intensity over the carrot, no rule is also breached. The survival of the Prince is paramount. How that comes about is of little or no consequence. This is why adherents of the Machiavellian school of power insist on the end justifying the means. They say power is not religion that is defined by morality.
Tinubu understands this perfectly. He has a great deal of the Machiavellian flavour in him. That is the secret of his tenacity. He started in 1999 as many others. However, not too many of his mates in the 1999 Class of Governors are still standing. Billionaire banker and business man, Tony Elumelu, described him as the ‘’last man standing.’’ This was when Tinubu, then President-elect, visited the banker in his Ikoyi home in a pre-inauguration tour. And just at the threshold, before Tinubu was heralded in, there was a warm handshake followed by the description: The Last Man Standing. Elumelu did not explain why Tinubu was so described by him. But, as they say in law, res ipsa loquitur – the facts speak for themselves. None in the Class of 1999 equals Tinubu in all the critical departments. Between 1999 and 2007, he was the de jure governor of Lagos State. While as governor, there was no de facto entity anywhere.
Nobody searched for the governor of the state beyond Tinubu. In name and description, he was the governor. In eight years, he changed his deputy like wrapper because he insisted on a proper location of power within the state. That location must not fall outside him. Anything that cast doubt as to where the actual power in the state resided was resisted.
The control did not end with his eight-year tenure. Why leaving the State House Alausa, he carried with him the Power House to Bourdillon Street in Ikoyi where he is a lion. In name, he ceased being governor but has remained so in description and in reality since 2007. The grip is such that, today, BAT can be comfortably addressed as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and also the Executive Governor of Lagos State. He is the de facto Governor who designs the real acts for implementation by the de jure Governor in Alausa, Lagos.
In all, Tinubu has stood out. He is not like other Governors in his class who just left office and power. He left the office but took the power along. He has not disclosed the secret of his tenacity. Nobody understands how he has been able to retain the governorship of Lagos State 18 years after leaving office. It is his unique selling point which he is holding tightly to his chest to protect it from being stolen by others. The operation in Lagos State aligns with the provisions in the law of agency. The agent acts on behalf of the principal and strictly within the mandate he enjoys. Anything outside that is what is known in law as ultra vires – acting outside the legal prescriptions.
Tinubu has remained the Principal who works through agents in Lagos State. His control goes beyond just the governorship. It is the entire government of Lagos State. For instance, when the State House of Assembly acted beyond what was allowed by the agency deal, the legislature was called to order. Its mandate does not include removal of the speaker of the House without clearance from the principal. When it did, the action was declared null and void and of no effect. The removed speaker, Mudashiru Obasa was advised to walk back to his office and the matter was closed, never to be reopened.
There is something else about BAT that people are not listing. He does not discriminate within his sphere of jurisdiction. His offer is to both Jews and Gentiles. But he pays more for loyalty than he pays for competence and performance. If in the end, the Gentiles proved more worthy of being called allies, he would walk and work with them. With him, many are usually called but few will be chosen in the end. The crowd is taken through a crucible to test for loyalty. Those that lean more towards competence than loyalty are asked to withdraw mid-way. It is not about how much you know. Those that know, cannot be trusted in the great battles ahead. This is part of the reasons that the Lagos State House of Assembly which started tall with Adeleke Mamora in 1999 as Speaker, had steeply dropped to and remained with Obasa since 2015. It has been more peaceful that way. People who prove to know too much or know their right from left do not fit well. This accounts for why Babatunde Fashola who came immediately after BAT as Governor of Lagos State is not currently standing in the mainstream. He seems to know too much.
When the issues of the Unification and ideological tendencies were playing up in Germany, Kaiser Wilhelm and Otto Von Bismarck were focused on whom they needed to build a new Germany. They wanted ‘good citizens’ as against ‘intellectuals’. Tinubu has also not pretended about the persons he needs to build a new Nigeria. He needs loyal politicians and not critical thinkers. Akinwunmi Ambode is out of the Tinubu scheme for the same reason. Prof. Yemi Osinbajo and Dr. Kayode Fayemi are a bit distant too. Tinubu now has new men with whom he is sailing smoothly. These men understand how to work with BAT. They understand for instance that he likes to control directly and not through middle men.
Against this understanding, there is something in the Rivers State drama that is not obvious to the casual observer. The man called Nyesom Wike is clearly overbearing. He does not hide his love for power. Unwittingly, he is contesting limelight with the boss. That is in breach of the laws of power. Wike cannot be trusted as a middle man to exercise power on behalf of BAT. What, if he uses his sphere of influence as a blackmailing tool in the middle of a battle and at a point that BAT will be less able to counter or neutralise him? Wike loves power as much as BAT. It is not safe for both of them to have the same appetite for power. Leaving Wike at that level of coordinate influence in the affairs of Rivers State could prove dangerous. It would look like having two captains of equal authority in a ship. The voyage could be scuttled and BAT, a grand master in the game of intrigues knows when an ally is focused on the same goal as himself.
The situation in Delta State is not different. BAT doesn’t want to handle the high stakes in Delta State through the many middle men posturing as godfathers in the State. In the PDP, the shadows of the immediate past Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, on the incumbent are rather too thick. Balancing the politics to ensure survival is not a sure game for Governor Sheriff Oborevwori. Before the defection, almost everybody in the PDP was claiming a key role in the political survival of the Governor in 2027 even as the real opposition of the APC welled up. The defection therefore came as a breather, first to rest his anxieties with the PDP stakeholders, beginning with the immediate past Governor, and also to even up with the mounting APC’s opposition.
For BAT however, the event has offered him a direct control of the stakes in Delta State. He can now deal directly with the Governor outside unpredictable political jobbers in both the PDP and APC. It squarely serves his purpose. He loves control and he has taken control in Delta State. He is pursuing the same purpose in Akwa Ibom State where Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, stands as a middle man. Tinubu knows his men in Lagos. But he does not know these middle men in the South-South masquerading as die-hard loyalists. And he is being cautious since to prevent is better than to cure. The unfolding moves in the South-south and later in the Southeast, is to guard against things going wrong in 2027. For now, he is on top of his game until something shifts to offset the calculations. He has proved to be a grand master in the game of intrigues. For now, he deserves a garland. Whatever shifts to cause accident between the mouth and the tea cup is also to say that no man is entitled to play God on earth. It is not over until it is fully over.
